There is a chance that unexpected turnovers or other events can occur(10-20% chance). All of which are modifiers that can impact the projection of the score. Amount of time travelling affects every person on that team every week.
These lines are generated from Las Vegas handicappers. 10-20% of all your bets throughout the season will go unexpectedly and probably because of turnovers. Most of the time this a pretty accurate strategy for calculation of projection.
. Information is gathered from (thai-m88) and sportsbook.ag.
The primary bet is Washington to win the game, the money line. I calculate turnovers to be worth 3-7 points each.
This is showing that the Redskins will beat the Giants 30-24. I encourage you to try these betting techniques and place some bets on it. Remember this is just an estimate, a projection. The larger the difference between projected points and the Las Vegas point spread, the higher chances of winning that bet.
This projection has not calculated for injuries, home field advantage, division game or weather.
Points Per Game vs Points Per Game Allowed
One betting strategy that worked for me throughout the 2013 season is offensive points per game added together with the opposing team defensive points per game allowed, then divide by 2. What we’re looking for here is a large enough discrepancy between final projected scores and combined scores to bet on. Times when emotion is highest in players and fans at home field affects the game 100% of the time. If no emotion, then not much advantage at home. They can be tough to overcome if gone against your bet but, they are not consistent. That’s not enough to stop you from taking that chance. Home field advantage can affect the result greatly but, not every time. Redskins money line is the safest bet but, will win less money than an over under m88 bet or a bet to cover the point spread.
Turnovers are totally unexpected and difficult, maybe impossible to predict. Though the calculation shows that the Redskins will win by more than 4 points, it is not guaranteed. Things can change leading up to the game and during the game as well. That result should give you a pretty close estimate of how many points that offense will score against that defense that day.
Las Vegas Spread
These formulas have been done in Excel. You might just win.
The result, Washington gets one turnover or New York turns it over once. You have a 80-90% success rate against unexpected turnovers.
However, there are modifiers that can affect how the formula is calculated, thus changing the result of the projection